With the NBA Playoffs underway and the Milwaukee Bucks watching from home, that can only mean one thing to Bucks fans and general manager John Hammond – time to make the team better.
When the 2009-10 season kicks off in just over six months, the Bucks will already have two top-notch players on the floor who had no part in the team’s Playoff push this season; Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut. Redd missed the team’s last 36 games, while Bogut missed the final 32 games. Both are recovering from injuries, and are expected to make full recoveries in time for next season.
But while the Bucks may add two starters, they also face the reality of potentially losing two other starters this off-season in free agency. Ramon Sessions, who took over the starting point guard position in early February after Luke Ridnour broke his thumb, is a restricted free agent, and is certainly due a large raise from the two-year rookie contract he signed as a late-second round pick in 2007.
Additionally, Charlie Villanueva, who started 47 games at power forward and was third on the team in scoring (16.2 points per game), is also a restricted free agent.
With Redd and Richard Jefferson set to make a combined $31 million next season (which takes up over half of the team’s salary cap space), Bogut’s contract extension kicking in for $10 million, and bench players Dan Gadzuric and Charlie Bell on the books for a combined $10 million, the Bucks have very little financial flexibility to re-sign Sessions or Villanueva, much less be able to add other players through free agency.
Add in the fact that the NBA’s salary cap is expected to be lowered next season due to the poor economy, and it’s safe to say that Hammond finds himself in a tough situation.
Perhaps the answer to improving is through the NBA Draft. Fortunately, the Bucks won a tie-breaker over the New Jersey Nets (both teams finished 34-48) and now have the 10th best chance to win the number one overall pick, rather than the 11th. Unfortunately, that still means only having a one-percent chance of winning the Draft lottery, and ultimately, having the opportunity to draft Oklahoma sophomore sensation Blake Griffin. For comparison purposes, the Sacramento Kings (who had the worst record in the league) have a 25-percent chance of landing the number one pick.
If the Bucks don’t miraculously land one of the top three picks, they will draft somewhere between pick 10 and 13. The question is; could they find a difference-maker that late?
With the Bucks’ salary cap being maxed out, the answer then has to be to improve through trades. Of the Bucks top three paid players (Redd, Jefferson, Bogut), who is the most expendable? Of those three, who would other teams want to trade for? And would those teams be willing to give up anyone good to get them?
I believe that the answer lies in trading Michael Redd.
Redd has spent his entire career (nine seasons) in Milwaukee, and sometimes, change is good for everyone. Moving Redd could certainly rejuvenate him as a player, simply by the change of scenery. And for the Bucks, it would allow younger players such as Bogut (and perhaps Sessions if re-signed) to become the face of the franchise, and no longer rely on Redd to carry the team.
Since signing his max-contract with the Bucks in the summer of 2005, Redd has been expected to be the guy that takes Milwaukee to the next level. But as is usually the case in the NBA, pure outside shooters like Redd cannot be the best player on top-tier Playoff teams (ala Ray Allen’s lack of Playoff success in four-and-a-half seasons in Seattle as their best player, compared to his two highly-successful seasons in Boston as their third best player).
And if you believe that Redd is no longer the Bucks’ best player, then unless you envision this team making a deep Playoff run next season, why use nearly one-third of your salary cap space on him?
So should the Bucks trade Redd for nothing more than salary cap flexibility? What if trading Redd for little in return means having the money to be able to re-sign Sessions? If that option is presented to Hammond, I think that any non-Playoff team would prefer having a 23-year old point guard rather than a soon-to-be 30-year old shooting guard.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Bucks are on the right track
It’s easy for pessimists to say that the Milwaukee Bucks had another disappointing season, one which ended without a trip to the post-season. But unlike recent Bucks teams, where effort was questioned and an unproven head coach was at the helm, this year’s team clearly took a step in the right direction.
Two of the Bucks top players, Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut, each missed more than half of the team’s games this season. Redd played in only 33 of their 82 games, and has been out since January 24th when he tore the ACL and MCL in his left knee. Bogut was not on the court much more than that, playing in 36 games, missing the majority of the season with a lingering back problem.
And despite those major injuries, the Bucks still finished with eight more wins than last season, due in large part to new head coach Scott Skiles. They were also a legitimate Playoff contender up until the final three weeks of the season, when a stretch of going 4-16 put an end to any thoughts of post-season basketball in Milwaukee in 2009.
But with all things considered, the 2008-09 season was a success, starting with the acquisitions and roster moves of new general manager John Hammond last summer.
First, he turned the terrible contract of Bobby Simmons (had 2 years and $20 million left at the time of the trade) and the incredibly disappointing Yi Jianlian into proven veteran player Richard Jefferson. In terms of straight up talent-for-talent, the Bucks destroyed the New Jersey Nets in this trade. Luckily, Hammond was able to take advantage of a team that was looking to clear salary cap space for the summer of 2010 when LeBron James and other big-name players hit free agency.
And while Simmons continued to prove that he’s one of the worst contracts in the league (7.8 points per game in ’08-09, made $10 million) and Yi showed his second team in two years that he’s a lottery pick bust (8.6 ppg, 38% shooting in ’08-’09), Jefferson played all 82 games for an injury-plagued Milwaukee team, averaged just under 20 points per game, and was by all accounts, the steady presence that kept the Bucks afloat and in the Playoff race through the middle of March.
Additionally last summer, in a move that appeared to be more about team chemistry, Hammond also traded Mo Williams to the Cleveland Cavaliers, only to see Williams become a first-time All-Star this season. But in Milwaukee, Williams was expected to be a pass-first point guard in an offense filled with guys looking to get 15-20 shots each game (namely Redd and Charlie Villanueva), along with the Bucks desire to also get Bogut the ball more in the post. But in order for Williams to be most effective, he needs to be on a team where he can take plenty of shots, and playing alongside LeBron James in Cleveland was a perfect fit for him.
I do think, however, that the Bucks could have gotten more than Luke Ridnour, the expiring contract of Damon Jones, and Adrian Griffin (who ended up as an assistant coach, not a player) in exchange for Williams and Desmond Mason, so I can’t justify this as a good move. But it did get Williams’ contract (5 years, $43 million left at the time of the trade) off the books. Most felt that the Bucks (under previous general manager Larry Harris) overpaid Williams in the summer of 2007 to prevent him from signing with the Miami Heat.
In Hammond’s first NBA Draft as general manager of the Bucks, I think credit is due. While some consider Joe Alexander (Bucks’ 2008 1st round pick, 8th overall) a disappointment after one season in Milwaukee, more has to be considered before calling it a wasted first-round lottery pick. Sure, D.J. Augustin and Brook Lopez (overall picks 9 and 10 to the Charlotte Bobcats and New Jersey Nets, respectively) had better individual seasons than Alexander, but consider the positions that those two play. Augustin is a point guard, and Lopez is a center, and we had young guys at both positions already in Ramon Sessions and Bogut. Plus, with Alexander’s athleticism, he certainly has a chance to live up to his billing as a top ten pick.
But even if you can’t find a positive in using an 8th overall pick on Alexander, there is no denying that the Bucks came away with one of the two steals in the second round, drafting Luc Richard Mbah a Moute with the 37th overall pick (the other being Mario Chalmers 34th overall to Miami). Mbah a Moute had an outstanding rookie season, defending the other teams’ best perimeter player every game, and showing his versatility by starting 51 games this season at two vastly different positions, shooting guard and power forward.
With Hammond’s second off-season approaching as general manager in Milwaukee, Bucks’ fans should be confident that this team is heading in the right direction for the first time in several years.
Next week I’ll be talking about how the Bucks can improve this summer through free agency, trades, and the draft.
Two of the Bucks top players, Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut, each missed more than half of the team’s games this season. Redd played in only 33 of their 82 games, and has been out since January 24th when he tore the ACL and MCL in his left knee. Bogut was not on the court much more than that, playing in 36 games, missing the majority of the season with a lingering back problem.
And despite those major injuries, the Bucks still finished with eight more wins than last season, due in large part to new head coach Scott Skiles. They were also a legitimate Playoff contender up until the final three weeks of the season, when a stretch of going 4-16 put an end to any thoughts of post-season basketball in Milwaukee in 2009.
But with all things considered, the 2008-09 season was a success, starting with the acquisitions and roster moves of new general manager John Hammond last summer.
First, he turned the terrible contract of Bobby Simmons (had 2 years and $20 million left at the time of the trade) and the incredibly disappointing Yi Jianlian into proven veteran player Richard Jefferson. In terms of straight up talent-for-talent, the Bucks destroyed the New Jersey Nets in this trade. Luckily, Hammond was able to take advantage of a team that was looking to clear salary cap space for the summer of 2010 when LeBron James and other big-name players hit free agency.
And while Simmons continued to prove that he’s one of the worst contracts in the league (7.8 points per game in ’08-09, made $10 million) and Yi showed his second team in two years that he’s a lottery pick bust (8.6 ppg, 38% shooting in ’08-’09), Jefferson played all 82 games for an injury-plagued Milwaukee team, averaged just under 20 points per game, and was by all accounts, the steady presence that kept the Bucks afloat and in the Playoff race through the middle of March.
Additionally last summer, in a move that appeared to be more about team chemistry, Hammond also traded Mo Williams to the Cleveland Cavaliers, only to see Williams become a first-time All-Star this season. But in Milwaukee, Williams was expected to be a pass-first point guard in an offense filled with guys looking to get 15-20 shots each game (namely Redd and Charlie Villanueva), along with the Bucks desire to also get Bogut the ball more in the post. But in order for Williams to be most effective, he needs to be on a team where he can take plenty of shots, and playing alongside LeBron James in Cleveland was a perfect fit for him.
I do think, however, that the Bucks could have gotten more than Luke Ridnour, the expiring contract of Damon Jones, and Adrian Griffin (who ended up as an assistant coach, not a player) in exchange for Williams and Desmond Mason, so I can’t justify this as a good move. But it did get Williams’ contract (5 years, $43 million left at the time of the trade) off the books. Most felt that the Bucks (under previous general manager Larry Harris) overpaid Williams in the summer of 2007 to prevent him from signing with the Miami Heat.
In Hammond’s first NBA Draft as general manager of the Bucks, I think credit is due. While some consider Joe Alexander (Bucks’ 2008 1st round pick, 8th overall) a disappointment after one season in Milwaukee, more has to be considered before calling it a wasted first-round lottery pick. Sure, D.J. Augustin and Brook Lopez (overall picks 9 and 10 to the Charlotte Bobcats and New Jersey Nets, respectively) had better individual seasons than Alexander, but consider the positions that those two play. Augustin is a point guard, and Lopez is a center, and we had young guys at both positions already in Ramon Sessions and Bogut. Plus, with Alexander’s athleticism, he certainly has a chance to live up to his billing as a top ten pick.
But even if you can’t find a positive in using an 8th overall pick on Alexander, there is no denying that the Bucks came away with one of the two steals in the second round, drafting Luc Richard Mbah a Moute with the 37th overall pick (the other being Mario Chalmers 34th overall to Miami). Mbah a Moute had an outstanding rookie season, defending the other teams’ best perimeter player every game, and showing his versatility by starting 51 games this season at two vastly different positions, shooting guard and power forward.
With Hammond’s second off-season approaching as general manager in Milwaukee, Bucks’ fans should be confident that this team is heading in the right direction for the first time in several years.
Next week I’ll be talking about how the Bucks can improve this summer through free agency, trades, and the draft.
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